Babolsar County, due to its unique natural, cultural, and historical capacities, holds significant potential for the development of this industry. However, tourism development in this region faces various obstacles and challenges that necessitate identifying the key drivers of development for effective and sustainable planning. The objective of this research is to determine the effective and key factors influencing the development of tourism in Babolsar County.

Design/methodology/approach: This applied, analytical-exploratory study was conducted with a futures studies approach. Initially, influential indicators were identified, and data were collected through a cross-impact matrix questionnaire administered to tourism experts. The data were analyzed using MICMAC software, which extracted the direct and indirect effects of the drivers.

Findings The results indicated that ten key drivers—including traditional rural fabric, active weekly markets, self-employment markets linked to tourism, handicrafts and home industries, specialized tourism management, the presence of local managers, appropriate transportation networks, health services, local tourism programs and tours, and rural eco-lodges—had the greatest direct impact on tourism development in the county. Additionally, the tourism system in Babolsar was found to be somewhat unstable and requires better coordination and infrastructure strengthening. For sustainable tourism development, it is necessary to establish integrated management among the related organizations, improve transportation and welfare infrastructures, train and empower local human resources, and support cultural capacities and eco-tourism. Furthermore, the use of modern technologies in marketing and information dissemination should be adopted, and continuous participation of the local community should be strengthened.

Originality/value: This study, by employing MICMAC software and the cross-impact matrix method, provides a detailed analysis of the direct and indirect effects of the drivers of tourism development. The use of a futures studies perspective along with the involvement of regional experts has transformed this research into an innovative model for sustainable tourism planning.